Recents in Beach

China to lift all birth restrictions?

China to lift all birth restrictions?




Demography is destiny  an ageless phrase coined by french  philosopher auguste compt  he was talking about real estate in 19th  century europe  but pick any country today it still  rings true  a young healthy population is a blessing  an aging dependent one  well not so much china realized this in  the 1970s they were on the cusp of a  population disaster so they introduced  the one child policy they legislated  demographics  did it work well it did on paper at  least china's birth rates dropped the  immediate crisis was averted  but here's the problem in china family  planning was not an option  it was the law and when you legislate  demographics  destiny kicks you hard and this  is the result 12 million babies were  born in 2020 the lowest recorded births  since the 1960s in crude terms china is  running out of people  it's running out of factory workers and  soldiers  how is beijing planning to tackle this  with more legislation  last month china unveiled the three  child policy  and it's exactly as it sounds three kids  per family but some experts said  it may be too little too late so china  is going one step further  according to reports beijing is planning  to lift all birth restrictions by 2025  no more one child or two child or three  child policies  parents can decide for themselves at  least theoretically because  in china well you never know but why  2025  why not immediately you see china  follows the system of five-year plans  the current one expires in 2025 so the  next plan will supposedly  eliminate birth restrictions it will  start from northeastern china  this is often called the chinese rust  belt in the last decade  population dropped 1.2 percent in this  region so it is an  obvious candidate to test out the policy  but the question is  will it work family planning is  extremely organic nobody has kids  because the state asks them to the  conditions must be perfect to raise a  family people should want it  this means affordable healthcare too a  vast school network  and economical living conditions in  china that is not the case  i'll give you an example in 2005 the  cost of raising a child was 76  000 dollars in china today it is 300 000  4 times more in 15 years  so there's no incentive for chinese  couples to have kids  it's just too expensive how will beijing  fix this  by cracking down on tuition centers  you heard that right china is cracking  down on tuition centers  to boost its failing birth rate  let me explain this one of the biggest  expenses  in raising a child is education and not  just schools but private tuitions  it's a 120 billion dollar industry in  china they work  through weekends vacations summer it's  less of education  more of an assembly line an early  introduction into the rat race in china  there are two problems with chinese  tuitions one they're a nightmare for  children  two they're very expensive so beijing is  planning a crackdown a new watchdog will  regulate private tuitions in the country  what will this watchdog control fees  content  schedules training qualifications  basically it's a communist takeover of  private tuitions in china  and on the face of it it looks appealing  a breather for kids and less expenses  for parents but there is a backhanded  motive here  private tuitions is the new frontier in  china nearly 75  of chinese children attend them which  means it is a cash cow  every chinese tech giant has weighted  institutions by dance  tencent alibaba they're all in this game  obviously the regime does not like this  xi jinping wants schools to regulate  to educate children and they want the  government to regulate it  when beijing announced this decision  tuition companies in china lost  billions of dollars in market value some  of them were planning to announce ipos  but not anymore  because the chinese regime is taking  charge of tuitions  another motive is to control content  china says it wants to maintain the  quality of tuitions which is another way  of saying  there isn't enough propaganda there at  schools  this is not a problem because the party  sets the curriculum  but private tutors had a free pass until  now  now this new watchdog is going to decide  the syllabus  it will also decide the professors who  teach this syllabus  so two things can happen one the  tutorial industry may perish altogether  all the regulations will spook new  investors and education  will again be a state monopoly the  second thing that can happen  is the tuition industry survives not as  a thriving business but as a heavily  controlled and censored wing of the  regime  either way it's a win for beijing and  that sums up the problem with chinese  policy makers they do not  want young blood they want loyal  brainwashed young blood  if demography is indeed destiny it is  playing a cruel  trick on china's innocent children.

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